Tensions in North Kivu

Commentary

Mack Shapeero (05/03/2023)

Since the 27th of March 2022, the alleged Rwandan (and Kigali denied) supported March 23 Movement (also known as M-23 or as the Congolese Revolutionary Army) has been on a steady advance towards the regional capital of Goma in North Kivu.

Most recently, it was reported by the Independent that the rebel group had advanced toward Sake town in the Masisi Area, displacing 65 000 people. The rebel group active since 2012 had remained dormant until 2021 when it began to attack and control swaths of Congolese territory and kill civilians.

What does this advance towards Sake town mean for the region, Kinshasa, and the UN MONUSCO mission? If there is no immediate and effective measure implemented to protect Goma, the city will fall if the government and the United Nations do not react accordingly. The city itself is now at risk of becoming isolated and potentially under siege. The situation could become so dire that humanitarian aid will be unable to reach the inhabitants as it will be cut off according to a number of agencies.

Will North Kivu ever be stable? It appears that MONUSCO has failed. Residents of Sake were reported to have protested against the UN Mission and have even accused MONUSCO of collaborating with M-23 rebels according to Crisis24. It will be interesting to see how the volatile situation will develop over the next few weeks and months. Will the government and the UN be able to halt the offensive? Will M-23 agree and act on the terms of the truce agreement as it has been accused of failing to do following talks and the truce agreement in Luanda (Angola) on the 23rd of November 2022? So far the rebel group has failed to withdraw.

This will be an interesting situation to observe and monitor as tensions continue to get higher.