Chinese Subjugation to US Hegemony: a "Huge Leap of Faith"

(This essay was written in 2022)

The United States has been the global hegemon since the end of the Second World War post 1945. The military, economic and financial strength of the United States was used to create the security and economic institutions that dominated the post-war international order. However, in comparison to the previous Pax Britannica, the Pax Americana has begun to be challenged and decline since the end of the Cold War. Hence, the notion that a risen China would continue to subordinate itself to the Pax Americana is logically impossible. If the People’s Republic of China were able to surpass the United States and potentially replace it as the next hegemon in the international system, there would be no interest in China to follow an international system dictated by the United States. However, there is merit to the idea that a risen China would continue to subordinate. Perhaps, in order to safeguard peace and avoid the catastrophic destruction that a hot war between China and the US could potentially lead to or to protect its economic and political interests. However, that requires a huge leap of faith. It would be expected that it would not be in the interest of a risen China to continue to subordinate itself to the Pax Americana as demonstrated by how China has been challenging the pillars that support it.

It does require a huge leap of faith to believe that a risen China will continue to subordinate itself to the Pax Americana. From the perspective of a declinist, American hegemony has been declining since the end of the Cold War, hence it would not be in the interest of the PRC to continue to subserve when it could potentially replace the US (Layne, 2018). Firstly, “if China surpasses, equals or even approximates the United States in those dimensions of power, can the Pax Americana endure?” (Layne, 2018). China is already challenging the United States; China is the 2nd largest economy, largest trader, and manufacturer in the world (Dollar & Hass, 2021). China is also one of the largest creditors to the United States (around US$ 1.1 trillion) (Timsit, 2020). In addition, 124 countries compared to the 56 countries that are major trade partners with the US are major trade partners with China. Furthermore, China trades more with ASEAN countries than the US (in 2020, China traded US$ 516.9 billion compared to US-ASEAN trade only being US$ 154 billion) (Fung, 2022). Economically, China is beginning to rival and surpass the United States in certain areas especially in Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) where China surpassed the US in 2014 (Layne, 2018).

Furthermore, militarily, China has made large strides in increasing its military capabilities. In the last 20 years alone, double digit annual increase in the defence budget and the modernization of its military has made China a significant threat to the US military, with it being expected by the end of 2049 to be a “world-class military” (O'Hanlon, 2020). At present, China is now the second largest military spender (US$ 196 billion in 2020), even though it is still far behind the United States (US$ 778 billion in 2020) (Hollings, 2021). China’s rapid expansion e.g., in naval capabilities has led to the US acknowledging China as a “strategic competitor” as quoted by the U.S. Secretary of the Navy Carlos del Toro (Mongilio, 2021). China now has the largest navy in the world, surpassing the United States and the largest standing army, however it still has a long way to go before it can match the US military, but this has not stopped Washington D.C from acknowledging China as a serious competitor. In addition, China has also experienced a significant rise in its technological capabilities. The rapid technological advances have played a key role in contemporary geopolitics and China’s advance in this field has led to direct competition with the United States who has maintained its position as the “technologically dominant power for decades” (Chhabra, et al., 2020).

China has also begun to seriously threaten and challenge the pillars that uphold the Pax Americana. China’s unstoppable rise has begun to match and compete with the United States, especially institutionally through its “ever-increasing economic dominance” (Layne, 2018). For instance, China is directly challenging the IMF and the World Bank through the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) and the ‘one belt one road’ (OBOR) development initiative (Layne, 2018). In addition, the OBOR initiative is the largest investment in global infrastructure in history and has outpaced the 1948 US Marshall with ease (Andresen, 2019). China is challenging the crumbling pillars that support the Pax Americana directly and is using the same military, economic, institutional, and ideational pillars to increase both its soft and hard power around the globe. From flexing its economic muscle, to its military and directly challenging American founded global institutions as well as trading with major American allies shows that the decline of American power and the rise of China will most definitely not lead to a subordination of China to the Pax Americana.

However, there is reason for understanding how a risen China may continue to subordinate to the Pax Americana. Logically, it is expected that once China surpasses the United States that there would be a gradual shift in global power and the position of global hegemon would pass to China. The hegemonic stability theory explains the reasons behind the Pax Americana and why it has “endured since 1945…and why it faces a doubtful future” (Layne, 2018). The theory points to the view that in a unipolar international system, once the hegemon’s power declines it will be replaced, in this case by China. However, it is more likely that an anarchic world order would arise as it is unlikely that America’s allies would accept a Pax Sinica. Furthermore, the United States will most definitely try to hold on to the Pax Americana as China is both a partner, challenger, and competitor (Dollar & Hass, 2021). Primacists argue that the fear of China overtaking and replacing the United States are greatly exaggerated. For instance, when perceiving that the international order is still unipolar it is understandable from a primacist point of view that the US will cling on to it for as long as possible (Layne, 2018). Menzel adds to the notion that for China to continue to subordinate to the Pax Americana may actually benefit Beijing as in a nutshell China benefits from American hegemony (Menzel, 2021). In addition, the United States has recognised the threat of a risen China and its danger to the Pax Americana. This has seen the United States adapting especially with the potential of a lock-in strategy that would reform the institutions of the Pax Americana which would make it more attractive for Beijing to continue to subordinate to the “post-1945 international order” (Layne, 2018). From a realist perspective, it is not in the West’s interest to have China as the global hegemon as according to the hegemonic stability theory it is that a liberal international order requires a hegemonic power of which China is not a liberal democratic country (Layne, 2018). Even, if China were to surpass and take over from the United States as the next global hegemon, it is unlikely that it would be easy and welcomed by the West. Therefore, it may be in China’s interest to continue to subordinate to American hegemony.

To conclude, it is true that ‘it requires a huge leap of faith to believe that a risen China will continue to subordinate itself to the Pax Americana’. Logically, as argued by declinists, as American hegemony has begun to decline and the pillars that support the Pax Americana are being gradually chipped away as seen by how China has begun to match, approximate and even surpass the United States in certain fields. It would not be in Beijing’s interest to subordinate to a global order dictated by Washington D.C. It is fact that China’s economic muscle has reached out around the globe and global trade, manufacturing and even development (especially in the developing world) has begun to depend on China. Militarily, China’s military is modernizing albeit slowly, but is becoming a serious strategic competitor to the United States. Chinese institutions such as the AIIB and OBOR are also challenging the American dominated IMF and World Bank. Such advances made by Beijing point to the obvious as argued by Layne. It is therefore very unlikely that a risen China would choose to subordinate. However, even though scholars such as Menzel argue that it is in China’s interest to continue to subordinate, that a hegemonic war would have significant consequences for China or that China as a global hegemon would probably be unwelcomed by the West. It does point that logically; a risen China would almost definitely refuse to continue to subordinate to the Pax Americana.

Bibliography

Journal Articles:

Layne, C., 2018. The US-Chinese power shift and the end of the Pax Americana. International Affairs, 94(1), pp. 89-111.

Dollar, D. & Hass, R., 2021. Getting the China challenge right. [Online] Available at: https://www.brookings.edu/research/getting-the-china-challenge-right/ [Accessed 3 April 2022].

Andresen, J., 2019. China's Military and the Belt and Road Initiative: a View from the Outside. The Chinese Journal of Global Governance, 5(2), pp. 122-135.

Online Sources:

Menzel, U., 2021. The rise of China and the future world order. [Online] Available at: https://www.gisreportsonline.com/r/china-world-order/ [Accessed 3 April 2022].

Chhabra, T., Doshi, R., Hass, R. & Kimball, E., 2020. Global China: Technology. [Online] Available at: https://www.brookings.edu/research/global-china-technology/ [Accessed 3 April 2022].

Timsit, A., 2020. How much US debt does China own?. [Online] Available at: https://qz.com/1905559/how-much-us-debt-does-china-own/ [Accessed 3 April 2022].

Fung, D., 2022. The Growing China-ASEAN Economic Ties. [Online] Available at: https://research.hktdc.com/en/article/OTUxMzk0NDE0 [Accessed 3 April 2022].

Hollings, A., 2021. How does China's defense spending really stack up against the US?. [Online] Available at: https://www.sandboxx.us/blog/how-does-chinas-defense-spending-really-stack-up-against-the-us/ [Accessed 3 April 2022].

Mongilio, H., 2021. SECNAV: New Navy Strategic Guidance Emphasizes Deterrence in the Pacific. [Online] Available at: https://news.usni.org/2021/10/06/secnav-new-navy-strategic-guidance-emphasizes-deterrence-in-the-pacific [Accessed 22 April 2022].

O'Hanlon, M. E., 2020. What the Pentagon’s new report on China means for US strategy — including on Taiwan. [Online] Available at: https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2020/09/04/what-the-pentagons-new-report-on-china-means-for-u-s-strategy-including-on-taiwan/ [Accessed 3 April 2022].